Posts Tagged ‘growth’

Finding the Next BRICs

January 3, 2012

The coining of the acronym BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) by Goldman Sachs in 2001 has brought considerable prominence to these growing global powerhouses.  With the possible exception of Russia, these countries have been extraordinary success stories in global trade over the last decade.

As these countries’ economies mature and become common fixtures in the investment community, investors are eager to uncover the next “diamond in the ruff” to secure double-digit returns for years and decades to come.  A recent article in the December issue of Global Finance magazine showed what traits leading financial institutions use to identify the countries they think are poised to become “future-star” economies and what their predictions are for their respective “next big thing” lists. 

In an attempt to emulate the success of the BRIC moniker, Goldman Sachs has introduced the Next Eleven (N11), while HSBC’s list uses the acronym CIVETS (Columbia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey, and South Africa).  Fidelity has chosen a similar acronym MINTs (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Turkey), and Citi has created their Global Growth Generators, or 3G countries.

Growth Economies Acronyms 

According to the article there are three factors that seem to be the underlying prerequisites for explosive global growth: a stable sociopolitical environment, human capital, and infrastructure. 

A stable sociopolitical environment is essential to help create a venue in which companies can invest. Dong-Sinh Ngo, Chief Strategist, Emerging Markets and Asia Pacific, at BNP Paribas IP, says, “Institutions and the rule of law are necessary for growth.  At the most basic level, legal institutions are needed to guarantee contracts in order to motivate people to invest.”

Another important factor in a country’s success is human capital.  But according to experts interviewed by Global Finance merely having a large population of working age adults is not enough by itself to fuel growth.  Nicolas Kwan, Head of Research, Asia at Standard Chartered, explains, “People need to be educated at primary and secondary level for them to achieve their potential—long-term growth can’t be built on cheap labor.”

The third and final factor is infrastructure.  Without proper investments in infrastructure like electricity, roads and bridges, and ports, trade on a global scale is not sustainable in the long-term, and those countries that haven’t made adequate investments will likely see slower growth.

So assuming their predictions are correct what are the next big emerging markets? 

The only country that was selected by all four institutions was Indonesia, followed by Nigeria, Vietnam, Turkey, and Egypt which were included in three of the four analyses.  Other countries mentioned more than once include Bangladesh, Mexico, and the Philippines. 

Ultimately, only time will tell which of these economies will prevail, but global trade intelligence from PIERS can help you uncover which markets are growing and which are in decline.  To learn more, register for a free market snapshot at www.piers.com.

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Ka-Boom! Commodity Trends with the Click of a Button

June 29, 2011

This weekend, the skies will light up with the fiery, colorful sparkle of fireworks throughout the U.S. in celebration of Independence Day.

A quick search in PIERS StatsPlus for “fireworks” gives a snapshot of market specific intelligence to illustrate commodity growth trends, leading producers and buyers and market share information. This search confirms what many in the industry have seen for years—China continues to dominate, holding over 95% of the market in 2009 and 2010.

Trend Analysis for Top U.S. Import Markets for Fireworks, 2010

Trend Analysis for Top Growing U.S. Markets for Fireworks, 2010

Total time required to assess the global market trading trends for this commodity: Minutes!

PIERS StatsPlus™ uses international trade statistics combined with market specific trade intelligence to provide the global picture of a commodity and the companies trading it. To learn more about what StatsPlus can do for you, visit our Product & Solutions page on Facebook.

PIERS Issues Unprecedented Report on NVOCC Growth

June 22, 2011

After taking a detailed look at the Non-Vessel Operating Common Carrier (NVOCC) market, PIERS analysts have found this market sector is anything but common. Announced today, PIERS has issued an exclusive report titled “PIERS NVOCC Analysis” that documents NVOCC growth since 2006. The report is now available for free download.

The report mainly concluded that as U.S. trade with the rest of the world has grown explosively during the past decade, the NVOCC industry has grown even more rapidly. This growth can be attributed to several factors, but at the core, NVOCCs have grown because they facilitate the international transport of relatively small shipment lots that would otherwise be less likely to move across borders in the ocean freight system.

The report includes several graphs and charts featuring key findings and illustrating these positive trends. During the 2006-2010 period, total U.S. inbound liner shipping volumes declined by 2.8 percent per year on an average. However, volumes moving under a NVOCC flag increased by 4.2 percent per year from 2006 to 2010, as shown in Figure 1.

Figure 1: Indexed Inbound Trade Growth Total Volume Versus NVO Volume

NVOCCs also outperformed total trade in terms of value. In 2006, NVOCCs captured 28.2 percent of inbound liner shipments by value and 33.5 percent in 2010. Annual average growth of trade in terms of value was 0.6 percent from 2006-2010 compared to a 3.7 percent annual decline for total trade, as shown in Figure 2.

Figure 2: Total Inbound Trade Value, NVOCC Versus Total

PIERS’ dynamic NVOCC data offers marketing and sales professionals, as well as analysts and other leaders in the industry, unique and customized insight into the performance of the NVOCC market and can be used to determine the underlying factors of its growth as well as its impact on your business.


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